One econometric model predicts a NIT implies a 13% drop in the savings rate and a subsequent 22% reduction in the capital stock.

"Second, there is a negative relationship between the magnitude of the transfers and per-capita GDP, which decreases by 9% under the optimal NIT. The reason is simple: leisure is a normal good. The transfer insures agents against periods of low productivity, enabling them to work only when they are productive and reducing their need to save. Therefore, the savings rate drops 13%, implying a 22% reduction in the capital stock."

econometric