An econometric model finds that a tax-financed, $11,000 per year UBI may lead to significant welfare losses for future generations.

“We introduce a UBI policy that provides each household with $11,000 per year, financed by additional taxes. This policy has different implications in the short versus the long run. Whereas older agents have either small gains or losses (with the oldest cohorts and low skilled, non-college educated agents gaining the most), younger cohorts on average suffer significant welfare losses. These losses are even larger for future cohorts not yet born.”