A $12k/year UBI funded via consumption taxes raises utilitarian welfare by 0.12%

The author constructs an econometric model of the US economy by developing an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic income risk, inclusive of intensive and extensive margins of labor supply, on-the-job learning, and child-bearing costs. Using the model to conduct counterfactual analyses of replacing the US income-security system with a UBI, he finds that, inclusive of taxes to fund a $1,000/month UBI, macroeconomic aggregates decrease, but welfare increases.