A $12k/year UBI funded via a 22% increase in consumption taxes would contract both capital and output.

"In my second counterfactual exercise, I implement Andrew Yang’s proposal of UBI. I let the level of transfers be of US$12,000 annualy to each agent in the economy. In this scenario the tax rate on consumption needs to increase 22 percentage points in order to balance the government’s budget. The aggregate response of the economy is a contraction of both capital and output. Both UBI reforms increase the Gini coefficient for pre-tax earnings and wealth, mostly due to the selection mechanism arising from the high productivity agents that remain in the labor force and are able to buffer consumption through higher level of savings. However, there is more equality in disposable income with a large redistribution towards the bottom 20%, driven by a reduction of the means accrued by the middle-class."

econometric


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